London, United Kingdom, 10 Dec – The Angolan economy is expected to see average annual growth of 7.4 percent over the next five years, with a maximum of 8.5 percent in 2012 and minimum of 6.4 percent in 2015, according to projections from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), of The Economist group.
For this year the EIU estimates 2.9 percent growth for the Angolan economy.
In its December report, the EIU said that gross domestic product growth in Angola in the 2011 to 2015 period would mainly be due to a rise in oil production, which is expected to increase from a current average of 1.84 million barrels per day to 2.2 million barrels per day in 2015.
However, the report said, the Angolan economy may see lower growth if problems occur in the oil industry and the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) tries to demand that Angola stick more closely to the production quota set by the cartel.
The peak expected in 2012 in growth of the Angolan economy is due to the likely start of operations of the LNG (liquid natural gas) project, slowing to an average of 7.1 percent in the following three years – 2013, 2014 and 2015.
The EIU also said that regardless of economic growth, economic expansion in Angola will continue to be based on intensive investment and dependent on imports, with few links to other sectors of the economy other than those dependent on the government, such as construction and finance.
Inflation is expected to rise this year to 14.5 percent, due to a rise in fuel prices following a drop in subsidies and continued devaluation of the kwanza, remain unchanged in 2011 and start to decelerate in 2012, to 12.8 percent, reaching a low of 9.5 percent in 2015.