Mozambican GDP to reach peak of 15 pct growth in 2020 – Business Monitor International

9 October 2013

Mozambique’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to post growth of 7.1 percent in 2013 and reach a peak of 15 percent in 2020, according to recent projections from Business Monitor International, which said that Mozambique would be the world’s fastest growing economy over the next decade.

In a report on perception of risk in the country [Mozambique Country Risk], published at the beginning of October, the British agency said that GDP growth would be 7.1 percent this year and expected “economic growth to accelerate in 2014 to a peak of 15 percent in 2020,” when it believes that Mozambique will “launch production of the gas recently found on its northern coast.”

The Business Monitor International (BMI) report also said that “the Mozambican monetary authorities are going to wait to see how quickly the economy recovers from the floods,” at the beginning of this year, before lowering base interest rates, which “remain at 9 percent,” and projects inflation of 6.4 percent in 2014 “due to a weak rand.”

In terms of risks that the Mozambican economy faces, teh British agency notes the vulnerability of the agricultural sector to adverse weather, “specifically either too much or too little rain,” and “an inability to deal with ineffective infrastructure,” that are currently unable to support “exports of the country’s natural resources to foreign markets.”

Although it has an “optimistic view” of the Mozambican economy, BMI says it fears that a lack of infrastructure may negatively affect exports, which “will be the main engine driving growth over the next few years.”

Despite this, in another report BMI said that the Mozambican economy would be the fastest growing economy in the world in the next decade, with accumulated GDP growth of 158.8 percent by 2022, or almost twice the projection for China (80.6 percent). (macauhub)