Economist revises economic growth forecast for Angola in 2015 downwards to 4.8 pct

27 October 2014

The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has lowered its growth forecast for Angola, from 5.5 percent to 4.8 percent, and said oil production would not reach 2 million barrels per day in 2015.

According to the EIU October update, the downward revision of economic growth is explained by a decline in government spending, an expected decline in oil prices next year, and a lower than expected increase in oil production.

“We now expect production to reach 1.85 million barrels per day in 2015 compared with the previous forecast of 2 million a day,” the document said.

In 2016, Angola’s GDP growth is expected to accelerate to 5.7 percent, rising to an average of 6.3 percent between 2017 and 2019, “underpinned by robust private consumption,” according to the latest EIU forecasts.

The non-oil sector, “including transport, light industry, trade and services, will expand rapidly, but the lack of reforms and overvalued exchange rate will ensure that the business climate remains adverse, restricting investment outside the construction and oil sector.”

The EIU also said that the government’s efforts to help create small and medium enterprises “will be hampered by weak human capital, poor regulations, inefficient power supply, high levels of corruption and the intrusion of the public sector in private investment.” (macauhub/AO)