Angola budget deficit may rise to 14 pct of GDP in 2015

29 December 2014

Falling oil prices may lead Angola’s budget deficit in 2015 to increase to 14 percent of GDP, almost double the previous forecast outlined in the state budget that has already been approved by parliament, according to a British consultancy.

In a recent report cited by the Portuguese press, Capital Economics said the 4 percent surplus achieved last year could become a deficit of 14 percent, almost double the expected budget deficit of 7.6 percent projected by the government.

“The fall in oil prices in recent months lead us to project that growth in Nigeria and Ghana will face difficulties and Angola will slide into recession in 2015,” said Capital Economics.

In addition to the impact on economic growth and fiscal imbalances, Capital Economics also expects in countries like Nigeria, Ghana and Angola, “the currencies to remain under pressure, inflation to remain high and interest rates to rise.”

However, the price of Brent crude oil closed last week at US$59.67, the second time since the second quarter of 2009 the closing value fell to below US$60.

The drop in the price of oil per barrel, which in the case of Angola reached US$23 this year, has caused tax revenues – Tax on Oil Income, Tax on Oil Production, Tax on Oil Transactions and revenues from concessionaire Sonangol – fell in November to US$1.728 billion, the lowest monthly value for the year.

Last November, the average price of each barrel exported from the ten production areas identified in a Ministry of Finance report on ordinary income stood at US$84.5, compared to US$107.7 in the same month of 2013. (macauhub/AO)