Economist Intelligence Unit lowers growth forecast for Angola to 2.7 pct in 2015

29 October 2015

The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Wednesday lowered its growth forecast for Angola’s economy to 2.7 percent in 2015, assuming a recovery of 4.3 percent in 2016 and an average expansion of 6.3 percent by 2019.

“Given the continued context of low oil prices, we expect growth of 2.7 percent in 2015, reflecting lower than expected public spending, and an even greater decline in oil prices in 2015, of about 46 percent along with technical constraints on local production,” said the EIU analysts.

The Angolan Government projects a growth rate of 4.4 percent in 2015 and 3.3 percent in 2016, according to the state budget and also anticipates a deficit of 5.5 percent of GDP.

In its commentary on the development of Angola’s economy, the EIU said that between 2017 and 2019 the economy will grow, on average, by 4.3 percent, “based on sound public and private spending and in a context of a recovery in oil prices.”

The EIU also reviewed the oil production forecast downward estimating that Angola can produce 1.79 million barrels per day, compared to 1.82 million in 2015.

Inflation, which should end 2015 at 10.1 percent, remained at double digits in August, reaching 11 percent year on year, up from 10.4 percent the previous month, the fifth consecutive monthly increase. (macauhub/AO)