EIU and government of Angola agree on growth forecast for 2016

18 July 2016

The forecast for Angola’s economic growth for 2016 presented by the government – 1.3% – is exactly the same as in the latest report on Angola from Economist Intelligent Unit (EIU), to which Macauhub had access.

Last week, the Angolan Ministry of Finance released a statement on the evolution of some economic aggregates, including public debt, expenditure and budget revenues as well as the forecast for economic growth.

According to the EIU Angola’s economy should grow more robustly from 2017, when it is expected to reach 3.0%, increasing to 3.5% in 2018, later falling back to 2.9% in 2019 and 2.6% in 2020, also according to the EIU report.

Part of this growth will be based on public expenditure, after a contraction of 6.0% in 2015, it is expected to grow by 3.2% this year and between 4.4% and 3.5% in 2018-2020.

Investment will also tend to grow at higher rates than the 0.7% expected to be recorded this year, as will exports of goods and services.

After a fall of 15.2% in 2015 and a forecast contraction of 2.0% this year, exports of goods and services are expected to grow 6.5% in 2017, 5.0% in 2018 before falling to 3.3% and 3.6% in 2019 and 2020, respectively.

The EIU also said in its report that after a period when inflation gradually reduced to a single digit, it stood at 29.2% in May, against 26.4% last month, year on year.

The behaviour of this variable has been affected by successive reductions in fuel subsidies since September 2014 and the devaluation of the kwanza against the dollar, which increases the prices of all products that Angola imports, such as food. (macauhub/AO)