The government of Angola is preparing a document that will serve as a basis for the review of the State Budget (OGE) for 2016 and aiming for economic growth of 1.3%, with GDP in the oil sector to grow by 4.1% and the non-oil sector retreating 0.01%, according to a report in weekly newspaper Expansão.
According to the newspaper the document called “Executive Macroeconomic Reprogramming” prepared by the Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination Committee presents a “portrait” of the recent evolution of the state of the economy and its prospects in the short term.
In the 2016 State Budget the government pointed to overall GDP growth of 3.3%, weighted average growth of 4.8% in the oil sector and 2.7% of the non-oil sector.
According to the newspaper, the new government forecasts include lower current expenditure and a 30% increase in investment, with the oil economy going into recession by decreasing 0.01%.
The government estimates that the average price of crude oil per barrel in 2016 will fall from US$45 as listed in the current State Budget (OGE) to US$41.
Sales prices in the first half of 2016 averaged US$36 per barrel.
Given the downward trend in oil prices in the first half of the year, the Angolan government estimates tax revenues of US$18 billion (25% less than initially estimated), of which US$8.3 billion are guaranteed by oil exports.
The downward review also affects expenditure, which drops from US$30 billion to US$24 billion, a cut of 20%. (macauhub/AO)