Angola’s economic growth should average 2.9 percent from 2107 to 2021

31 October 2016

The Angolan economy should post average growth of 2.9 percent during the period from 2017 to 2021, compared to the rate of 4.1 percent during the period from 2012 thru 2016, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) affirms in its latest report on Angola.

The EIU forecasts growth of just 0.6 percent this year, adding that the economy will recover in 2017 with a rate of 3.0 percent, increasing to 3.5 percent in 2018 and then wavering between 2.8 percent and 2.5 percent in the following three years.

Public revenue should remain weak due to the continuing slump in oil prices on international markets. The EIU expects budget execution to present a deficit that should average 4.4 percent during the 2017-2021 period.

The inflation rate should tend to fall in 2017-2021 in the wake of the high rate at end 2016, estimated to reach nearly 35 percent. It will nevertheless remain fairly high due to cuts in fuel subsidies and devaluation of the national currency.

The authors of the EIU report state that the kwanza should continue to lose value due to the shortage of US dollars caused by falling oil prices. The difference between official and parallel exchange rates should remain very high.

The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that Angola will begin to produce more than 2 million barrels of oil per day in 2018. This year’s production rate should be around 1.785 million barrels per day.

The report outlining the proposed state budget for 2017, submitted to Angola’s National Assembly on Friday, forecasts economic growth of 2.1 percent in 2017, when production should rise to 1.8 million barrels of oil per day, a figure less than the EIU’s forecast estimating 1.9 million barrels per day. (Macauhub)