IMF improves forecasts for Timor-Leste’s economy in 2018

15 October 2018

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its forecasts for the economy of Timor-Leste (East Timor) and projects that non-oil GDP in 2018 could grow by 0.8% this year.


The IMF, however, revised accounts for 2017 downwards, when the economy contracted 4.6%.


In the Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and the Pacific, the IMF is more optimistic than in April about 2019, when it forecasts growth of 5%.


In the April report, the IMF set the Timor-Leste economy’s decline last year at 4.1%, and has now increased that by five basis points to -4.6 percent, improving the forecast for 2018 from a 2% contraction to an increase of 0.8%.


According to the IMF, inflation was 0.6% in 2017, well below the average of the emerging Asian countries (which was 3%), rising to 1.8% this year and 2.7% in 2019.


The IMF also says that the general government balance in 2017 was -19.5% of GDP (nearly four times the average of the group of oil-producing countries).


This figure, which was -35% in 2016, is expected to drop to -17.1% this year – with the state’s investment remaining low – returning to -27.8% in 2019.


Non-oil revenues are about one-third of GDP, more than three times the average among oil-producing countries. (macauhub)