Macau’s economic growth forecast in the December report from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) was revised down from the September report from 5.8% to 3.8% this year.
The September report includes forecasts for the years 2018 and 2019, while the report issued this month contains forecasts for 2018, 2019 and 2020.
In the September document the EIU forecast was real growth of 5.8% in 2018 and 3.9% in 2019, while the report released two days ago contains forecasts of 3.8% for this year, of 2.3% in 2019 and 3.6% in 2020.
The remaining significant indicators, inflation rate and unemployment rate, remain unchanged, with the budget execution balance revised upwards, with the EIU adding about one percentage point to the forecast announced in September.
The latest report notes that the major change is in gross fixed capital formation, or investment, in 2018, which from a previously expected fall of 6.2% has now contracted by 17.1% due to the results in the third quarter.
The EIU analysts point out that investment will continue to be very weak, given delays in large public works as well as the fact that there is no planned opening of new casinos coupled with the effects of a high base of comparison. (macauhub)