Macau to end 2019 with an economic contraction of 1.3%, IMF says

17 October 2019

Macau’s economy is expected to contract by 1.3% this year and 1.1% in 2020 before returning to positive ground in 2024 at a rate of 0.3%, according to forecasts in the World Economic Outlook report released this week by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Figures from the Statistics and Census Bureau (DSEC) show that the Macau economy contracted by 2.5% in real terms in the first half of 2019, mainly due to the year-on-year decline in gross fixed capital formation, or investment.

However, DSEC drew attention to the fact that the contraction in the second quarter – 1.8% – was lower than in the first quarter, when the economy contracted by 3.2%.

All these figures, both verified and expected, compare with 4.7% economic growth in 2018.

The remaining Macau indicators mentioned in the International Monetary Fund report remain broadly unchanged in 2019 and 2020 compared to 2018, such as the inflation rate, the current account balance and the unemployment rate.

The inflation rate, which stood at 3.0% in 2018, will fall to 2.4% this year, rising to 2.7% in 2020, before returning to 3.0% in 2024.

The current account is expected to change in tenths of a percentage point by 2019 and 2020 from 35.2% of gross domestic product in 2018, with the big change coming in 2024 at 29.8% of GDP.

Finally, the unemployment rate will remain stable over the review period at 1.8%. (Macauhub)

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