New forecast points to economic contraction of 3.7% for Macau in 2020

15 January 2020

Macau’s economy is expected to experience a contraction of 3.7% in 2020, according to estimates prepared by the Economics Department of the University of Macau, published on Tuesday.

According to the team of researchers from UM, the factors driving the contraction include the “constant trade friction” between China and the United States and the drop in gaming and tourism revenues.

Kwan Fung, assistant professor of the Economics department of the University of Macau, said that, although there is a preliminary trade agreement between China and the United States, the focus of international trade conflicts is unlikely to change this year.

He added that the agreement, although it may alleviate the problem, is not a resolution of the dispute between the two countries.

The professor said that the 3.7% figure was only an estimate put forward by the team that conducted the study, and it is expected to be updated as more information comes to light.

In December 2019, Economist Intelligence Unit analysts also forecast that the economy of the territory would contract again in 2020, with a negative rate of 3.3%, and the average contraction in the 2019/2020 period will be 4.3%, due to the cooling of the gaming sector and the lack of new investment projects in this area.

The region’s Statistics and Census Bureau is due on 28 February to publish figures on developments of Macau’s Gross Domestic Product in the fourth quarter of 2019 and for the full year. (macauhub)